When I first formulated the newsletter that became Filmbobbery back in the 1990s, it was because of the Oscars. It evolved into before- and after- issues, and then a quarterly journal which celebrated film, with two issues that continued to focus on the telecast that represents the best in cinema. Since 2011 Filmbobbery has been a website, but I have not made the effort to translate the Oscar focus. For this 2019 awards season, I will post — at the last minute — my guesses at what will win. I usually end up at about half right; hopefully my percentage will be higher this year because there seems to be some slam dunks. Here we go . . .

Actor in a Leading Role:

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker. Slam dunk.

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood. Slam dunk.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Renée Zellweger, Judy. Slam dunk.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Laura Dern, Marriage Story. Not quite a slam dunk; watch out for Florence Pugh for Little Women as a dark horse.

Animated Feature Film:

Toy Story 4. Just picking the favorite here.

Cinematography:

1917. Its “one-take” format ensures its win.

Costume Design:

Little Women. The most traditional nominee should win.

Directing:

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood. Toss-up; this could be Sam Mendes or Bong Joon Ho, or even Todd Phillips. But I’m thinking this will be a tribute to Hollywood’s favorite bad boy, who is now 50.

Documentary Feature:

American Factory. Just a guess, as I don’t know these nominees.

Documentary Short Subject:

St. Louis Superman. Just a guess, as I don’t know these nominees.

Film Editing:

The Irishman. I simply picked the longest film in this category, a trick that used to work most of the time.

International Feature Film:

Parasite. Slam dunk.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Joker. Toss-up; could barely make up my mind on this one.

Original Score:

1917. Thomas Newman finally gets his win.

Original Song:

“”(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman. Elton John gets an Oscar!

Picture:

Scroll down to the end. Saving the biggest category for last.

Production Design:

Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood. Best guess.

Animated Short Film:

Hair Love. The only one I’ve seen, and thought it was great.

Live Action Short Film:

Nefta Football Club. Just a guess, as I don’t know these nominees.

Sound Editing:

1917. Slam dunk.

Sound Mixing:

1917. Slam dunk.

Visual Effects:

1917. Best guess.

Adapted Screenplay:

Joker. Toss-up; just a hunch.

Original Screenplay:

Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood. Toss-up; best guess.

And, finally, Best Picture:

Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood. For months I have touted the most traditional choice, 1917, and it may still win. The two dark horses, Joker and Parasite, are strong choices for various reasons, but I have come to believe that Hollywood, being Hollywood, will honor its own legacy, which Quentin Tarantino has brought to life and improved on actual history.

That’s it. Enjoy the telecast!