While I have been a big fan of the Oscars since the 1970s I have paid less attention to them in recent years.  I cannot say why, except that some of the nominated films have not piqued my interest.  This year I have made a concerted interest to see more of them ahead of the contest, and I’ve seen eight of the ten Best Picture nominees — but only a bit more than half of the nominated performances.  Nevertheless, I’m going to predict who will win tonight, and I will do so without any of the context or commentary which I would have included back in the days of the printed Filmbobbery issues so many years ago.  Let’s see how I do, and good luck to all of you in your prognosticating.

Best Picture: Oppenheimer.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer.

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon.

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer.

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer.

Best Original Screenplay: The Holdovers.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer.

Best International Feature: Perfect Days, Japan.

Best Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron.

Best Documentary Feature: To Kill a Tiger.

Best Original Score: Oppenheimer.

Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For,” Barbie.

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer.

Best Costume Design: Poor Things.

Best Editing: Oppenheimer.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Poor Things.

Best Production Design: Barbie.

Best Sound: Oppenheimer.

Best Visual Effects: Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One.

Best Animated Short: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko.

Best Live-Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.

Best Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning.

 

That’s it.  My track record indicates that I’ll be right on roughly two-thirds of my predictions, or about sixteen of the twenty-four.  Oppenheimer is a sure bet for a lot, which means that I will be over 50%, which is my threshold for a successful ballot.  The fact that there are always surprises leads me to my guesses for Perfect Days in the International Feature category; I cannot be the only person who thinks The Zone of Interest is misguided and awful.  And of course the Documentary and Short film guesses are just that, guesses.  If I can manage to hit on one or two of those, I might reach a three-quarters percentage, or eighteen.  Nineteen is my all-time high.  Wish me luck!